Some numbers on the Humble Frozenbyte Bundle.
From the site:
Total payments: $887,732.61
Number of purchases: 176,780
Average purchase: $5.02
Average Windows: $3.99
Average Mac: $6.43
Average Linux: $11.71
Then the graphic on total payments by platform which appears to show:
Linux share: 25%
Max share: 15%
Windows share: 60%
Great, now what? Well, I was mostly curious on the breakdown of platform share. A figure they don't give, but one can work it out.
Linux share: 25% of total payments ~= $221,933.15 @ $11.71 average ~= 18,952 people
Max share: 15% of total payments ~= $133,159.89 @ $6.43 average ~= 20,709 people
Windows share: 60% of total payments ~= $532,639.57 @ $3.99 average ~= 133,494 people
This leave about 3,625 people unaccounted for, that seems to be caused by the HfB figures.
So, based on my arithmetic, what are the platform shares?
Linux share: 18,952 people ~= 10.72%
Max share: 20,709 people ~= 11.71%
Windows share: 133,494 people ~= 75.51%
Unaccounted: 3,625 people ~= 2.05%
One can't draw much of a conclusion from a single sample, so lets do the same for HiB2:
Total payments: $1,826,162.85
Number of purchases: 232,855
Average purchase: $7.84
Average Windows: $6.68
Average Mac: $9.27
Average Linux: $13.76
The graphic on total payments by platform which appears to show:
Linux share: 20%
Mac share: 20%
Windows share: 60%
Working out the platform share:
Linux share: 20% of total payments ~= $365,232.57 @ $13.76 average ~= 26,543 people
Max share: 20% of total payments ~= $365,232.57@ $9.27 average ~= 39,399 people
Windows share: 60% of total payments ~= $1,095,697.71 @ $6.68 average ~= 164,027 people
This leave about 2,886 people unaccounted for and again that seems to be caused by the HfB figures.
Based the above:
Linux share: 26,543 people ~= 11.40%
Mac share: 39,399 people ~= 16.92%
Windows share: 164,027 people ~= 70.44%
Unaccounted: 2,886 people ~= 1.23%
We can see that HiB2 seems to have been more popular with the "alternate" choices than HfB and I certainly remember hearing a lot more push in the podcasts and other websites for HiB2 than for HfB. But that's not what interests me. What I find striking is the circa 10% for Linux.
It's a generally held wisdom that Linux is big on the public-facing server (web sites, firewalls, routers etc) and as one moves further back into the enterprise Windows comes to dominate (because of Exchange, SharePoint, SQL Server etc). It is also commonly held that Linux is nowhere on the desktop. The general stats quoted for Linux are "within a rounding error" or single digits at best.
From
http://gs.statcounter.com/#os-ww-monthl ... 201103-barWindows: 91.56%
Mac: 6.56%
Linux: 0.76%
Other: 1.12%
And from
http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp (same period as above, more tech-focused site)
Windows: 85.82%
Mac: 8.00%
Linux: 5.10%
Other: 1.08%
Now, these are games. Are you going to install a game onto your ESX server or OpenStack node? Are you heck, so these must all be desktop installs. And that means, for the people who bought HiB2/HfB, the normal stats you see under-represent the Linux market at least twice and potentially as much as ten-fold.
Are you going to put a game on your office box? Not if you want to keep your job. So we can conclude that most of these must be domestic desktop installs. What does that mean? Well, it means that (outside of the enterprise arena) Linux is getting used more on the desktop and therefore there must be more people skilling-up on it. Part of the reason Windows is entrenched because it is all schools teach (MS gives massive education discounts for this reason). If kids are using Linux at home and taking that to school...what will they want to use in employment? What will they know how to use?
At what point does Linux gain enough domestic penetration to make re-skilling to Windows a bother and thus a cost? I don't know, but that time might be within the next decade. And that is without considering the penetration of Linux (or Linux-a-likes) into smartphones, set-top boxes etc.
There is another thing to consider. If the Linux market is so under-represented, if the hardware manufacturers can be made to realise that we might see better driver support and more "opening" of platforms (e.g. Blu-Ray). Probably a pipe-dream in the short term. But I like to dream.
